Wednesday, December 17, 2014

2015 Real Estate Market Predictions: Normal

As housing recovers, prices in many markets across the U.S. have shot up. In fact, RealtyTrac reported that the median sale price of U.S. single-family homes and condos in October had reached its highest level since September 2008. Price appreciation and the lure of foreclosures created a feeding frenzy for real estate investors willing to pay cash and made it harder for traditional buyers to compete.


But experts say that 2015 will be marked by a return to normalcy and balance for real estate markets across the country. Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow.com, predicts that home value growth will slow to around 3 percent per year instead of the 6 percent seen recently, and that will make real estate less attractive to many investors. “It's been a tough market for buyers," he says. "I think it's going to get easier in 2015. Negotiating power will move back to buyers and away from sellers. It will be a much more balanced market." (Too many buyers and too little inventory, or the opposite, contribute to an unbalanced market.)

Redfin.com's chief economist Nela Richardson agrees. "It's been a clear pattern that the investor activity has been shrinking over time," she says. "Investors like to go in where they can buy low and sell high. Price growth is starting to slow dramatically, so they can't sell much higher than what they buy. Investment property is less compelling in 2014 going into 2015."

More inventory and less competition from investors means even traditional buyers are becoming “more picky, and they're willing to let a home go if they don't think it's a good fit for them," Richardson adds. "Buyers are less worried that they'll miss out on something. Houses are more like buses now. If you miss one, another one will come along." Whereas buyers might waive contingencies in the recent past to make their offer more attractive to sellers, they're now more likely to insist on contingencies for financing and inspections.

That said, foreign investors may still find high-end American real estate appealing because of economic turbulence in their home countries. For instance, the U.K. is toying with a so-called "mansion tax" that would apply to those who own properties worth more than 2 million British pounds (or over $3 million), and China has placed restrictions on homebuying in large cities. Some foreign investors also worry about currency fluctuations devaluing money they hold in their home countries. "That section of the market is still all cash – people buying up these huge places because it's safer here than in their own countries," says Herman Chan, real estate broker with Bay Sotheby's International Realty in San Francisco.

Buyers from outside the U.S. may use their properties as a rental, a pied-à-terre (a secondary residence used for travel) or a residence for children studying at American colleges. But for buyers looking for more moderately priced homes, 2015 could offer a respite from bidding wars and all-cash offers. "People who've been on the fence about selling are finally going to pull the trigger, which is great for buyers [because it creates more inventory]," Chan says. "Now people with regular jobs and 20 percent down finally have a chance to get into the market."

For years, many millennials have postponed homeownership in favor of renting, but that may also change next year as a growing number of Gen Yers start families and seek more stability. "By the end of 2015, millennial buyers will represent the largest group of homebuyers, taking over from Generation X," Humphries says. "They prefer smaller units closer to the urban core, so it will be interesting to see whether they follow the time-honored path towards the periphery of the metro."
Baby boomers are also likely to make a move in 2015. Chan says he's "gotten so many calls from baby boomers recently saying, 'We’re downsizing, and we're moving to be closer to our grandkids or our son or daughter.'" With fewer homes underwater, they're finally in a position to sell.

While mortgage rates may not remain at the historic lows seen recently, more people may qualify for home loans as issues like foreclosures or short sales age out of their credit reports and Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae ease mortgage eligibility. Freddy and Fannie recently announced a new mortgage program for buyers with a down payment as low as 3 percent. "Freddy and Fannie have always been the industry leaders, and they're saying, 'It's OK to lend to people who don't have 5 percent down. It's OK to extend credit in a reasonable and safe manner," Richardson says.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

9 Red Flags to Watch When Choosing a Real Estate Agent



The proliferation of online real estate information makes it easier than ever to be an informed consumer when buying or selling a home. Yet the digital revolution has done little to lessen the importance of choosing the right real estate agent to work with you.

The right agent can help you buy your dream house or sell your existing home quickly. The wrong agent can botch the transaction, leaving you with egg on your face and nowhere to call home.
Despite the high stakes, many buyers and sellers give little thought to choosing an agent, whether they’re buying or selling.

Get recommendations from friends and relatives, and see which agents are buying and selling the most homes in your neighborhood. Read online reviews, but realize they don’t tell the whole story, since most clients, satisfied or dissatisfied, don’t write reviews. Interview three or four agents to find the one who is the best fit for you.

Most real estate agents are independent contractors who are paid a commission based on the number of homes they sell. The commission, paid from the sales proceeds, is usually split equally between the listing agent and the selling agent. Once the deal is closed, each of those agents usually has to pay a share to the broker who owns the office where he or she is affiliated.

Here are nine red flags to watch for when choosing a real estate agent:

The agent suggests the highest price for your house. If you’re selling your house, get listing presentations from at least three agents, who will tell you what comparable homes have sold for and how long they take to sell. The agents are all looking at the same data, so the suggested listing price should be close. Pricing a home too high at the start often means it takes longer to sell and ultimately sells for less. “If you’re too high for the market, buyers will not even look at it because they know you’re not realistic,” says Lee, the author of eight books and a frequent speaker at real estate conferences. “The longer your property sits on the market, the more people are going to think there’s something wrong with it.”

The agent does real estate on the side, part time: Whether you’re a buyer or seller, you want to choose an agent who is actively following the market every day. If you’re buying, you want an agent who can jump on new listings and show them to you immediately. If you’re the seller, you want an agent who is always available to show your home to prospective buyers.

The agent is a relative: Unless your relative is a crackerjack full-time agent who specializes in your neighborhood, he or she is unlikely to do as good of a job as another agent. That can breed resentment, as well as derail your transaction.

The agent doesn’t know know the real estate market in your area:  Finding a neighborhood expert is especially important in areas where moving a block can raise or lower the value of a home by $100,000. An agent who specializes in a neighborhood may also be in touch with buyers who are looking for a home just like yours or sellers who haven’t put their home on the market yet. “It’s really a very local business,” Lee says.

The agent charges a lower commission: In most areas, commissions are traditionally 5 to 7 percent, split between the buying and selling agent. If the commission on your house is lower, fewer agents will show it. This doesn’t mean you can’t negotiate a slightly lower commission if one agent ends up both listing and selling the house. Some newer companies rebate part of the commission to the buyer or seller, but don’t use that as the sole reason to choose an agent. That’s only a bargain if the agent is otherwise a good fit.

The agent’s face shows up with online listings: The agents’ faces are there because they paid to be there. They may or may not be the best choice for you. Don’t accept the online portal’s assertion that the agent is a neighborhood expert. Interview him or her yourself and find out.

The agent doesn’t usually deal with your type of property: If you’re buying or selling a condominium, don’t pick an agent who rarely sells condos. If you’re looking for investment property, find an agent who traditionally works with investors. Many agents have multiple specialties, but you want to make sure the agent is well-versed in the type of transaction you’re doing.

The agent doesn’t usually work with buyers in your price range: Some agents specialize in homes of all types in a specific area. But if you’re a first-time buyer looking for a $200,000 entry-level home, you are unlikely to get much attention from an agent who mostly handles $10 million luxury listings.

The agent is a poor negotiator or fails to keep up with details of the transaction: In many cases, the most important work of an agent is not to find the home but to make sure the sale closes. That includes making sure the buyer is preapproved for a mortgage, the home is free of liens before it goes on the market, the appraisal is accurate and issues raised by the home inspection are resolved.