2012 Housing Market Predictions: Prices and Rates to Remain Low

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably declined at a slower pace and consumer confidence improved, signs the economy gained strength heading into 2012, economists said before reports this week.

Property values dropped 3.2 percent in October from the same month in 2010, the smallest year-over-year decrease since January, according to the median forecast of 20 economists before a Dec. 27 report from S&P/Case-Shiller. Consumer confidence rose to a five-month high in December and more people signed contracts to buy previously owned homes than a month earlier, other data may show.

Rising builder confidence, fewer unsold new properties on the market and a pickup in construction point to improvement in the industry that triggered the last recession. Real estate is still facing another wave of foreclosures that may keep pressure on home prices, making for an uneven housing recovery.

“We’ll continue to see prices drop,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The middle of 2012 is when we think prices will actually bottom.”

Economists surveyed projected the gauge of residential real-estate values declined 0.3 percent in October from the prior month, when it fell 0.6 percent. The index was down 31 percent in September from its July 2006 peak. The year-over-year gauge provides a better indication of trends in prices, the group has said. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.

Pending Home Sales
Figures on Dec. 29 may show pending sales of previously owned homes rose 1.5 percent in November after a 10 percent jump, economists said before a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Reports last week showed a pickup in demand for houses. Sales of previously owned homes, which make up about 94 percent of the market, rose 4 percent to a 4.42 million annual pace, the most since January, the National Association of Realtors said Dec. 21.

Purchases of new single-family properties advanced 1.6 percent to a 315,000 annual pace, a seven-month high, figures from the Commerce Department showed Dec. 23. The increase pushed the number of new homes on the market to a record low.

Those gains have buoyed builders’ stocks since the end of the third quarter. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index, which includes Toll Brothers Inc. and Lennar Corp., has climbed 32 percent, while the broader S&P 500 has gained 12 percent.

Consumer Confidence
As housing stabilizes and employment strengthens, consumers are becoming more optimistic. Confidence rose to 58.6 from 56 last month, according to the Bloomberg survey median before a Dec. 27 report from the New York-based Conference Board.

Other surveys reflect gains in optimism. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index improved to minus 45 in the period ended Dec. 18 from a reading of minus 49.9 the prior week, marking the biggest seven-day gain since January. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to a six-month high in December. Some homebuilders say an increase in sentiment is needed to help boost demand.

“We need a higher level of confidence to get back to the traditional move-upstream or first-time buyer out of the rental,” Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive officer of KB Home, said on a Dec. 21 conference call with analysts. “A lot of consumers are surprised, frankly, at how low home payments are compared to rent.”

Policy makers are promoting programs designed to reinvigorate the housing market. The Obama administration this month started a new version of the federal Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, after the original plan helped less than a quarter of the people targeted to lock in lower mortgage rates.

Officials at the Federal Reserve this month reiterated that they will keep the benchmark interest rate near zero until at least mid-2013. The central bank in September decided to reinvest maturing housing debt into new mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries.

California Pending Home Sales Decline in November, but Year-to-Year Sales Post Higher for Seventh Straight Month

Pending home sales in California fell in November but were up from the previous year for the seventh consecutive month. Additionally, distressed home sales dropped in November from both the previous month and year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS(R) (C.A.R.) reported today.


Pending home sales:
California pending home sales fell 9.1 percent in November but were up from a year ago, according to C.A.R.'s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)*. The index was 109.8 in November, based on contracts signed in that month, down from October's index of a revised 120.9. However, the index was up 11 percent from November 2010, marking the seventh consecutive month that pending sales rose from the previous year. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.

"The strong year-over-year growth in pending sales observed in the last several months suggests we should see an increase in December's closed sales over the same month last year," said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold.

Distressed housing market data:
*At 55.1 percent, equity sales made up more than half of home sales in November, up from 53.9 percent in October and 54.4 percent in November 2010.

*The total share of all distressed property types sold statewide fell to 44.9 percent in November, down from October's 46.1 percent and 45.6 percent in November 2010.

*Of the distressed properties sold statewide in November, 21 percent were short sales, up slightly from the previous month's share of 20.7 percent and up from last November's share of 19 percent.

*At 23.5 percent, the share of REO sales was down from October's 24.9 percent, and down from the 26.2 percent reported in November 2010

Why the VA Home Loan is the Better Choice for Veterans

Within the last year conventional lending programs have lessened their strict lending requirements, but that doesn't mean that obtaining a conventional home loan has become any easier. In fact, conventional lending is just as unaffordable and inaccessible as it has ever been to the average American which has led many to either avoid homeownership altogether or seek the aid of government program.


For veterans and active duty service members, a unique government lending option is available through the Department of Veteran Affairs – the VA Home Loan. Catering to the distinct financial needs of service members, the VA home loan provides military members with money saving benefits that they would otherwise not be able to obtain including:

No Down Payment
Perhaps one of the biggest perks to the VA Home Loan program is that borrowers can secure a mortgage loan without having to put down a down payment. Even though conventional lending programs have lessened their income requirements, they haven't exactly lessened their need of a high down payment. Borrowers wishing to obtain prime interest rates can still expect to have to pay a 20 percent or more down payment which isn't always an affordable option, especially in this economy.

No Private Mortgage Insurance Required
Conventional lending programs require that borrowers purchase private mortgage insurance (PMI) to reduce their risk in the mortgage. PMI, depending on the size of your mortgage, can be incredibly costly adding a couple hundred dollars on to your mortgage payment. Because a VA home loan is backed by the government, there is no need for PMI, which can save you thousands over the life of your loan.

Low Mortgage Interest Rates
Conventional lenders are allowed to set their own loan interest rates to entice customers; however, unless you are able to put at least 20 percent down on the home you wish to purchase and have a credit score well into the 700s, you aren't going to qualify for those low interest rates they are boasting. Because the VA home loan program is regulated by the government, interest rates are constant. What you see is what you get, and because the government partially backs each loan given, interest rates are generally competitive to those borrowers were find with conventional lenders.

The VA Home Loan also has high loan limits, which can be a big money saver for qualified borrowers. The average VA Home Loan limit is $417,000, but can be even higher in more expensive real estate markets, allowing borrowers the opportunity to purchase the home they desire without having to seek additional financing.

Who is Eligible for the Program?
The VA loan requirements are quite lax, making eligibility for the program easy to obtain. In order to become initially eligible for the VA Home Loan program, service members must:

*Have served on active duty for 90 days during wartime or 181 during peacetime


*Or have served for at least 6 years in the Reserves or National Guard

Veterans and active duty service members will also be required to submit their Certificate of Eligibility in order to become eligible for the program. The VA home loan program does have lenient eligibility requirements; however, VA approved lenders will require that veterans and active duty service members present proof of a stable income and reasonable credit history in order to obtain financing.

Content provided By: Kevin Pearia

Mortgage Commentator for http://www.veteransunited.com/”

Housing Market Bottoming Out: Clear as Egg Nog

Since the beginning of the house-price crash in 2007, analyst after analyst has predicted that "the bottom" in house prices is just around the corner - only to be wrong every time.


But now, finally, it looks as though house prices may actually be nearing a bottom. Why?
Because, after falling nearly 35% from their 2007 peak, nationwide house prices are finally approaching "normal" levels on two key valuation measures: The "price-to-rent ratio," which measures house prices relative to what the houses might rent for, and the "price-to-income ratio," which measures house prices relative to average incomes.

Using the first ratio, economists at Goldman Sachs have concluded that national house prices will decline another 2.5% in 2012 and then bottom over the course of the following year.

House prices differ markedly depending on where you live, of course, and Goldman's analysts have considerably different predictions for different markets. Prices in New York, Portland and Atlanta, Goldman predicts, will still see significant declines. While prices in Detroit, Miami and Cleveland should rise.

Importantly, after a price bubble similar to the one the U.S. just experienced, prices often don't stop at "average" levels on the way down. On the contrary, they often plunge straight through "fair value" and spend years below average levels. And that certainly could happen to house prices this time around.

But Goldman's economists believe house prices will level out in a year or two. And unlike other analysts who have made similar predictions in prior years, Goldman's economists actually have data on their side: The price-to-rent ratio really has fallen to normal levels.

Of course, even if house prices do bottom in 2013, that doesn't mean that they'll quickly shoot up again - or that housing will once again be the "great investment" that everyone thought it was back in the boom years.

One of the reasons house prices are expected to bottom soon is that houses are currently more affordable than they have been in the past. But housing "affordability" is judged, in large part, on mortgage rates, and mortgage rates are currently near an all-time low. If and when the economy begins to recover in earnest, mortgage rates will likely rise, and, as they do, houses will become less affordable. So it is likely that, even after they bottom, U.S. house prices will face headwinds for a long time.

2012 Commercial Real Estate Forecast: Gradually Improving

Commercial real estate markets have been relatively flat this year, but improving fundamentals mean a more positive trend is expected in 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is little change in most of the commercial market sectors. “Vacancy rates are flat, leasing is soft and concessions continue to make it a tenant’s market,” he said. “However, with modest economic growth and job creation, the fundamentals for commercial real estate should gradually improve in the coming year.”

The commercial real estate market is expected to follow the general economy. “Vacancy rates are expected to trend lower and rents should rise modestly next year. In the multifamily market, which already has the tightest vacancy rates in any commercial sector, apartment rents will be rising at faster rates in most of the country next year. If new multifamily construction doesn’t ramp up, rent growth could potentially approach 7 percent over the next two years,” Yun said.

Looking at commercial vacancy rates from the fourth quarter of this year to the fourth quarter of 2012, NAR forecasts vacancies to decline 0.6 percentage point in the office sector, 0.4 point in industrial real estate, 0.8 point in the retail sector and 0.7 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.

The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of 231 local market experts,1 shows the broad industrial and office markets were relatively flat in the third quarter, in step with macroeconomic trends. The national economy continues to affect the sectors, with 92 percent of respondents reporting the economy is having a negative impact on their local market.

Even so, the SIOR index, measuring the impact of 10 variables, rose 0.6 percentage point to 55.5 in the third quarter, following a decline of 2.6 percentage points in the second quarter. In a split from the recent past, the industrial sector advanced while the office sector declined.

The SIOR index is notably below the level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace, but had seen six consecutive quarterly improvements before the last two quarters. The last time the index reached the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007.

Construction activity remains low, with 96 percent of respondents indicating that it is lower than normal; 88 percent said it is a buyers’ market in terms of development acquisitions. Prices are below construction costs in 83 percent of markets.

NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc., a source of commercial real estate performance information.

Office Markets
Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to fall from 16.7 percent in the current quarter to 16.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.3 percent; New York City, at 10.3 percent; and New Orleans, 12.8 percent. After rising 1.4 percent in 2011, office rents are forecast to increase another 1.7 percent next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is projected to be 20.2 million square feet this year and 31.7 million in 2012.

Industrial Markets
Industrial vacancy rates are projected to decline from 12.3 percent in the fourth quarter of this year to 11.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Los Angeles, with a vacancy rate of 5.2 percent; Orange County, Calif., 5.7 percent; and Miami at 8.4 percent.

Annual industrial rent should decline 0.5 percent this year before rising 1.8 percent in 2012. Net absorption of industrial space nationally should be 62.0 million square feet this year and 41.2 million in 2012.

Retail Markets
Retail vacancy rates are likely to decline from 12.6 percent in the current quarter to 11.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.7 percent; Long Island, N.Y., and Northern New Jersey, each at 5.7 percent; and San Jose, Calif., at 6.0 percent.

Average retail rent is seen to decline 0.2 percent this year, and then rise 0.7 percent in 2012. Net absorption of retail space is seen at 1.2 million square feet this year and 13.5 million in 2012.

Multifamily Markets
The apartment rental market - multifamily housing - is expected to see vacancy rates drop from 5.0 percent in the fourth quarter to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012; multifamily vacancy rates below 5 percent generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are Minneapolis, 2.4 percent; New York City, 2.7 percent; and Portland, Ore., at 2.8 percent.

Average apartment rent is projected to rise 2.5 percent this year and another 3.5 percent in 2012. Multifamily net absorption is likely to be 238,400 units this year and 126,600 in 2012.

Real Estate: Why Home Prices Won't Bottom Out

Watching the U.S. home market struggle to rebound is like listening to children in the back of a car. No, we're not there yet. The National Association of Realtors reported that ten real estate markets are "leading the nation toward a general recovery and stability of the housing sector," but myriad problems are going to weigh down the housing market for months to come.

The lingering malaise in the economy has triggered a new wave of defaults and foreclosures. After five straight quarterly drops, foreclosures nationwide shot up 14 percent from the second to third quarter this year, according to data released by Realtytrac, the foreclosure information service (see link.reuters.com/kaw94s), in October.

While RealtyTrac doesn't foresee that the latest foreclosure wave will equal the severity of the 2007-2010 pattern -- in which three million borrowers lost their homes -- it's going to slam on the brakes where areas are getting hit the hardest.

In theory, it should be a good time to buy a home. In the worst-hit areas, properties have lost more than half their value. Yet as the average 30-year mortgage rate has slipped below 4 percent, the combination of employment insecurity and unusually tight standards for lending are discouraging buyers en masse. Lenders are asking for extensive income verification and tax returns. One lender I contacted for refinancing even wanted me to get an accountant to certify that I wasn't lying to the IRS.

Here are some of the biggest roadblocks:

Even in bruised cities where price appreciation is evident, unemployment is still too high. Six out of 10 of the "top turnaround towns" listed by Realtor.com (see link.reuters.com/maw94s) for the third quarter had jobless rates above 10 percent. People can't buy homes if they're not working or soon to lose their jobs. Those cities, which include four of the largest cities in Florida, still have a long way to go to recover from the housing bust.

Although at a record low, the home mortgage rate may still be high relative to home prices. This may sound counterintuitive, but research from the Leuthold Group in their November newsletter shows that a "real" mortgage rate -- which factors in the falling market value of the home prices -- is 8 percent. Leuthold says that real cost of buying must include the 4 percent interest rate and the 3.9 percent average home prices decline over the past 12 months. That cost is still scaring away buyers.

The combination of unemployment, high housing inventory and foreclosures is hurting places where there wasn't an excessive price run-up. Realtor.com found that the largest year-over year median listing price decreases through October were in cities like Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta. This three-punch combination will continue to ravage markets where there's a sluggish economy

Possible solutions to the housing blockage range from the radical to the necessary. A group called Remortgage America (www.remortgageamerica.com/) is calling for the government to loan Americans mortgages at 1 percent to finance a new or existing residence.

Others would like to see Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac take the foreclosed homes they own and either auction them off or offer them in a huge fire sale.

The seized mortgage agencies account for up to one-third of foreclosed homes -- about 250,000. American taxpayers are pouring tens of billions into propping up these two wards of the state, which were taken over by the U.S. Treasury in late 2008. The Obama Administration has yet to announce what it wants to do with the companies. Will they be restructured, liquidated or privatized?

A third option, which may have the least impact on a battered market, is to offer foreclosed homes in rent-to-own deals. Prospective homeowners get a place to live under reasonable leases and can build equity toward a purchase.

It's estimated that some 3.4 million foreclosed homes will be on the books of banks and mortgage companies by the end of this year. As regulators, banks, mortgage companies and state attorneys general move sheepishly to unblock mortgage modifications, refinancings and resales, only one certainty prevails: The open market will not be able to properly price every property until all government restrictions are lifted on their sales and re-financing.

Bay Area Real Estate: Finally Some Good News!

SAN JOSE, Calif. (KGO) -- Here's the best news you've heard in years about Bay Area real estate. A new report offers not just a glimmer of hope in California's housing market, but predicts a roaring comeback over the next six years. We could be poised for a dramatic comeback.


ABC7 spoke with the California director of the Economic Forecast and he's predicating a rise in home prices is going to be the convergence of a number of factors. He is suggesting that more jobs, fewer distressed properties, and those historic low interest rates will all play a role in this turnaround.

The same panel of economists who warned the California housing bubble was going to burst is now predicting homes prices are ready to rebound. "I am absolute thrilled that we are finally coming out with something positive," said Cherie Colon from Windermere Real Estate.

UCLA economists are predicting a steady climb in the median price of existing California homes. The UCLA Anderson Forecast anticipates an 11.5 percent price jump next year. The forecast calls for another 10 percent increase in 2013 and a median price of nearly $440,000 by 2017 -- that would represent a 52 and a half percent increase over today's prices.

Mike Sibilia is president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. He said, "52 percent by 2017 for median price, that is aggressive, but we've seen it before, and what I like is the steady growth is what I like to see."

The National Bureau of Economic Recovery says the recession ended in June 2009, but the foreclosure crisis and high unemployment have weighed heavily on any recovery. Now, Jean Haneke is seeing signs of life. She's looking to sell her home in Morgan Hill.

"There are houses that are closing in our area, there are good sales, we've seen statistics on it, and we're looking for that sort of thing as a seller," said Haneke.

Foreclosures still count for about one third of all home sales in California and bay Area prices are especially zip code driven, but the UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests as a whole, home prices have hit bottom.

"I think locally we have already seen the start of it in some markets, but also don't expect it all to come because there are still the statistics that show that we're probably not going to be at 2006 levels again for 10 years or more," said Colon.

While the UCLA economist predict double-digit increases in terms of home prices, they say that home sales will remain relatively flat, bouncing in the 3 to 5 percent range, with the most sales activity taking place between 2013 and 2015