Good Advise for Home Buyers or Sellers in 2017

Forget a tale of two cities: Extreme housing market fragmentation is now creating different experiences for home buyers and sellers in a wide range of locations and segments.

Nationally, home prices are expected to keep rising, albeit more slowly— 3.5% in 2017, vs. 4.5% in 2016, per Moody’s Analytics projections. But even more so than in recent years, your position is now going to hinge on what and where you’re buying or selling.

Hoping to escape a downtown condo for the suburbs? Your equity should go far: Small homes have seen much sharper price growth than larger ones, urban areas have appreciated faster than metro outskirts— and both trends are expected to continue in 2017.

If you’re in the reverse position, though, brace yourself: Inventory has tumbled among less expensive homes, and your money may not buy as much as you expect. Here are your best moves now:

Growing Families, Make Your Move

If you’re looking to trade up to a larger home, you’re in the housing market’s sweet spot, and the first part of 2017 should be a particularly good time to strike. Over the five years between 2011 and 2016, the average price on a two-bedroom house climbed 59% nationwide, while four-bedroom houses rose a more modest 41%, according to an analysis by Attom Data Solutions. Inventory has also risen at the higher end of the market, climbing almost 8% for homes in the $500,000 to $750,000 range.

Because you’re well positioned as a seller, and you want to walk away with as much money as possible for your next down payment, choose a higher offer over a speedier close, suggests Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Aiming Small? Be Flexible

If you’re hoping to cash out and scale back—or if you’re a first-timer looking for a starter home—you face a tight market with low supply and greater competition from rival buyers. Yet the more flexible you are, the more choices you’ll have.

Willing to move farther from the city center, for instance? The average price per square foot in overall metro areas has risen 52% over the past five years, according to Redfin, but it has jumped 76% in the urban cores.

And while no one wants to tackle a major overhaul, buyers who are willing to make at least some upgrades can get a better deal, notes Svenja Gudell, Zillow’s chief economist. You won’t be alone: More than half of home owners who bought in the past year got a place that needed at least some updates, according to a recent Zillow survey.

Meanwhile, retirees looking to move to sunnier climes can profit from what are now bigger variations between U.S. metro areas than have existed at any time in the past two decades, Yun says. He singled out Greensboro, N.C., where home prices have slipped 0.3% over the past year, as a possible retirement destination.

Lock In a Lower Loan Rate

If you’re ready to buy, now is a good time to pull the trigger on financing, since the record-low mortgage rates seen in 2016 aren’t expected to last. Average rates could rise as much as half a percent in the next year, according to Dan Smith, president of Atlanta-based PrivatePlus Mortgage. That would mean an $864 increase in annual payments on a $250,000 mortgage if rates jump to 4.2% from the 3.7% average on 30-year fixed loans in November.

10 of the Hottest Real Estate Markets for 2017

We’ve predicted a slight slowdown for the US Real Estate market next year, but the realtor.com economic team is forecasting that most of the nation’s hottest markets are going to keep blazing in 2017. And where will it be hottest? Head west! According to our forecasts, the western U.S. will continue to lead the nation in prices and sales.

“The top 10 markets all benefit from strong growth dynamics: population, jobs, and households,” says Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com’s chief economist, who analyzed the country’s 100 largest metropolitan markets for their growth potential. “They all have low unemployment that’s heading lower, which buoys consumer confidence.”

Western cities account for 11 of the top 25 metro markets on our list, including five in California. But whatever their location, all the top markets have in common relatively affordable rental prices, low unemployment, large populations of millennials and baby boomers, as well as a high number of listing views on realtor.com. The top 10 are forecast to see average price gains of 5.8% and sales growth of 6.3%, exceeding next year’s anticipated national growth of 3.9% and 1.9%, respectively.

And while the limited availability of homes for sale continues to be a problem for home buyers but a boon to homeowners, these markets are seeing growth in new construction that eases the supply shortage somewhat. Still, there isn’t enough new construction to keep up with the growth, Smoke says—and so prices continue to rise at above-average rates.

However, compared with last year, price growth in eight of the top 10 markets is expected to slow down, with only Los Angeles and Tucson, AZ, showing bigger increases over last year.

For all their commonalities, the top 10 metro markets have different buying patterns and price levels, Smoke notes. Millennials are more of a buying force in Boston and Los Angeles, while retiring boomers make their presence felt in Phoenix; Jacksonville and Orlando, FL; Raleigh, NC; Tucson; and Portland, OR. Veterans, meanwhile, come out in force in Jacksonville and Tucson.

See metrics for the top 20 markets below, and for the full list of 100 markets, check out the 2017 Housing Forecast:

Rank	Top Markets	Median Price	Price Growth	Sales Growth
1	Phoenix, AZ	$300,000	5.94%	7.24%
2	Los Angeles, CA	$675,000	6.90%	6.03%
3	Boston, MA	$480,000	6.09%	6.32%
4	Sacramento, CA	$420,000	7.18%	4.92%
5	Riverside, CA	$350,000	4.98%	6.88%
6	Jacksonville, FL	$284,000	4.79%	7.03%
7	Orlando, FL	$272,000	5.69%	6.10%
8	Raleigh, NC	$312,000	4.16%	7.55%
9	Tucson, AZ	$237,000	6.10%	5.47%
10	Portland, OR	$420,000	6.55%	5.02%
11	Durham, NC	$320,000	2.55%	8.95%
12	Colorado Springs, CO	$335,000	4.77%	6.71%
13	Jackson, MS	$207,000	1.98%	9.44%
14	Detroit, MI	$195,000	5.17%	6.22%
15	San Diego, CA	$620,000	6.47%	4.89%
16	Salt Lake City, UT	$345,000	6.66%	4.67%
17	Deltona, FL	$260,000	3.10%	8.23%
18	Provo, UT	$334,000	5.16%	5.84%
19	Austin, TX	$385,000	3.50%	7.40%
20	Seattle, WA	$430,000	7.36%	3.41%

5 Trends That Will Dominate Real Estate in 2017

We won’t pretend to know everything that 2017 will bring—heck, 2016 sure surprised us—but we’re pretty certain there will be changes. A lot of them. And while the surprise triumph of Donald Trump in the presidential election won’t alter the fundamentals shaping the 2017 real estate market, its impact is already being felt.

We’ve seen interest rates jump since the election, a movement that’s likely to affect the youngest generation of home buyers.

Just like last year, realtor.com®‘s economic data team analyzed our market data and economic indicators to come up with a picture of the key housing trends for 2017. As we prepare to bid farewell to 2016, it looks like we’ll be saying goodbye to the last of the record-low interest rates of the past few years, too. Interest rates have shot up 40 basis points, or 0.4 percentage points, since Trump’s election.

And that’s significant, especially for first-time home buyers, including many millennials.

“With more than 95% of first-time home buyers dependent on financing their home purchase, and a majority of first-time buyers reporting one or more financial challenges, the uptick we’ve already seen may price some first-timers out of the market,” says Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, who pulled together the realtor.com 2017 housing forecast.

According to the forecast, the 2017 national real estate market is predicted to slow compared with the past two years, across the majority of economic indicators studied.  But maybe “slowdown” isn’t quite the right description.

“I would characterize our 2017 forecast as a moderation, as opposed to a slowdown,” says Smoke. “The pace of growth is still strong and, for pricing, still represents an above-average level of appreciation.”

Smoke says we’re mostly reverting to normal prices, after years of appreciation as the housing market recovered from its 2008 crash.

Recovery is good, but the flip side is that pricing is tougher for consumers, Smoke points out.

“Throw in higher mortgage rates, and it becomes more challenging to be able to afford homes compared to what it was over the course of this recovery,” he says.

Here are some of the key predictions for 2017:

1. Millennials and boomers will move markets

In 2017, the U.S. real estate market will be in the middle of two massive demographic waves that will power demand for at least the next 10 years.

Millennials and baby boomers, the two largest American generations in history, are both approaching life stages that typically motivate people to buy a home: marriage, having children, retirement, and becoming empty nesters.

Smoke predicts that millennials will make up 33% of buyers in 2017, lower than his original estimate due to those increasing interest rates.

2. Millennials will look to the Midwest

While the financial picture may look grim for our youngest home buyers, the Midwest, with its affordable cities, still looks good. We believe Midwestern cities will continue to beat the national average in terms of its proportion of millennial home buyers in 2017. Leading the pack are Madison, WI; Columbus, OH; Omaha, NE; Des Moines, IA; and Minneapolis.

“It’s easier for millennials to buy in more affordable markets like in the Midwest,” Smoke says. “We’re also seeing large numbers of millennials buying in Midwestern markets with or near big universities. So part of this is an effect of recent graduates with good jobs being able to settle down in these more affordable markets.”

3. Price appreciation will slow down

Nationally, home prices are forecast to slow to 3.9% growth year over year, from an estimated 4.9% in 2016.

“Prices are still likely to go up at an above-average pace as long as supply remains so tight,” Smoke says. “The inventory problem is not going away.”

Of the top 100 largest metros in the country, 26 markets are expected to see price acceleration of 1 percentage point or more, with Greensboro, NC; Akron, OH; and Baltimore experiencing the largest gains. Likewise, 46 markets are expected to see a slowdown in price growth of 1 percentage point or more, with Lakeland, FL; Durham, NC; and Jackson, MS, undergoing the biggest downshift.

4. Fewer homes, fast-moving markets

The inventory of homes available for sale is currently down an average of 11% year over year in the top 100 U.S. metropolitan markets—and the conditions limiting home supply are not expected to change in 2017. The median age of inventory, or the time it takes a home to sell, is currently 68 days in the top 100 metros, which is 14%, or 11 days, faster than the national average.

5. The West will lead the way

We’re expecting metropolitan markets in the West will see a price increase of 5.8% and sales increase of 4.7%, much higher than the U.S. overall. These markets also dominate the ranking of the realtor.com 2017 top housing markets (more on that tomorrow), making up five of the top 10 markets on the list: Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Riverside in California; Tucson, AZ; and Portland, OR.